1. By 1 November 2017, ENTSOG shall carry out a Union-wide simulation of gas supply and infrastructure disruption scenarios. The simulation shall include the identification and assessment of emergency gas supply corridors and shall also identify which Member States can address identified risks, including in relation to LNG. The gas supply and infrastructure disruption scenarios and the methodology for the simulation shall be defined by ENTSOG in cooperation with the GCG. ENTSOG shall ensure an appropriate level of transparency and access to the modelling assumptions used in its scenarios. The Union-wide simulation of gas supply and infrastructure disruption scenarios shall be repeated every four years unless circumstances warrant more frequent updates.
2. The competent authorities within each risk group listed in Annex I shall make a common assessment at risk group level (‘common risk assessment’) of all relevant risk factors such as natural disasters, technological, commercial, social, political and other risks, which could lead to the materialisation of the major transnational risk to the security of gas supply for which the risk group was created. The competent authorities shall take into account the results of the simulation referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article for the preparation of the risk assessments, preventive action plans and emergency plans.
The competent authorities within each risk group shall agree on a cooperation mechanism to conduct the common risk assessment and report it to the GCG eleven months before the deadline for the notification of the common risk assessment and its updates. At the request of a competent authority the Commission may have a facilitating role in the preparation of the common risk assessment, in particular for the establishment of the cooperation mechanism. If competent authorities within a risk group do not agree on a cooperation mechanism, the Commission shall propose a cooperation mechanism for that risk group, after consulting the competent authorities concerned. The competent authorities concerned shall agree on a cooperation mechanism for that risk group taking utmost account of the Commission's proposal.
10 months before the deadline for the notification of the common risk assessment or its updates, each competent authority shall share and update, within the agreed cooperation mechanism, all national data necessary for the preparation of the common risk assessment, in particular for running the various scenarios referred to in point (c) of paragraph 4.
3. The competent authority of each Member State shall make a national risk assessment (‘national risk assessment’) of all relevant risks affecting the security of gas supply. Such assessment shall be fully consistent with the assumptions and results of the common risk assessment(s).
4. The risk assessments referred to in paragraphs 2 and 3 of this Article shall be carried out, as relevant, by:
(a)
using the standards specified in Articles 5 and 6. The risk assessment shall describe the calculation of the N – 1 formula at national level and where appropriate include a calculation of the N – 1 formula at regional level. The risk assessment shall also include the assumptions used, including where applicable those for the calculation of the N – 1 formula at regional level, and the data necessary for such calculation. The calculation of the N – 1 formula at national level shall be accompanied by a simulation of disruption of the single largest gas infrastructure using hydraulic modelling for the national territory as well as by a calculation of the N – 1 formula considering the level of gas in storages at 30 % and 100 % of the maximum working volume;
(b)
taking into account all relevant national and transnational circumstances, in particular market size, network configuration, actual flows, including outflows from the Member States concerned, the possibility of physical gas flows in both directions including the potential need for consequent reinforcement of the transmission system, the presence of production and storage and the role of gas in the energy mixes, in particular with respect to district heating and electricity generation and for the operation of industries, and safety and gas quality considerations;
(c)
running various scenarios of exceptionally high demand for gas and disruption of gas supply, taking into account the history, probability, season, frequency and duration of their occurrence and assessing their likely consequences, such as:
(i)
disruption of the infrastructure relevant to the security of gas supply, in particular transmission infrastructure, storages or LNG terminals, including the largest gas infrastructure identified for the calculation of N – 1 formula; and
(ii)
disruption of supplies from third-country suppliers, as well as, where appropriate, geopolitical risks;
(d)
identifying the interaction and correlation of risks among the Member States in the risk group and with other Member States or other risk groups, as appropriate, including, as regards interconnections, cross-border supplies, cross-border access to storage facilities and bi-directional capacity;
(e)
taking into account risks relating to the control of infrastructure relevant to the security of gas supply to the extent that they may involve, inter alia, risks of underinvestment, undermining diversification, misuse of existing infrastructure or an infringement of Union law;
(f)
taking into account the maximal interconnection capacity of each border entry and exit point and various filling levels for storage.
5. The common and national risk assessments shall be prepared in accordance with the relevant template set out in Annex IV or V. If necessary, Member States may include additional information. The Commission is empowered to adopt delegated acts in accordance with Article 19 in order to amend the templates set out in Annexes IV and V, after consulting the GCG, in order to reflect the experience gained in the application of this Regulation, and to reduce the administrative burden on Member States.
6. Natural gas undertakings, industrial gas customers, the relevant organisations representing the interests of household and industrial gas customers as well as Member States and, where they are not the competent authorities, the national regulatory authorities, shall cooperate with the competent authorities and provide them upon request with all necessary information for the common and national risk assessments.
7. By 1 October 2018 Member States shall notify to the Commission the first common risk assessment once agreed by all Member States in the risk group and the national risk assessments. The risk assessments shall be updated every four years thereafter unless circumstances warrant more frequent updates. The risk assessments shall take account of progress made in investments needed to cope with the infrastructure standard defined in Article 5 and of country-specific difficulties encountered in the implementation of new alternative solutions. They shall also build on the experience acquired through the simulation of the emergency plans contained in Article 10(3).